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The Minnesota Vikings have been in discussions with wide receiver Justin Jefferson for a contract extension for months now. They came very close to getting one done back in September but they couldn’t quite close the deal.

Now that the NFL Draft has passed, the extension should be coming relatively soon, as both sides took a break. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah wants Jefferson to have his own week with the extension. That certainly sounds like a general manager who knows that this deal is getting done.

Now, how much is Jefferson going to get from the Vikings? What kinds of records will he end up breaking?

Predicting Justin Jefferson’s contract extension
The recent extensions for wide receivers have updated the market and will give us a more modern look at what Jefferson could command.

Eagles’ DeVonta Smith: Three years, $75 million
Eagles’ A.J. Brown: Three years, $96 million
Lions’ Amon-Ra St. Brown: Four years, $120 million
Now, Smith is a WR2 so he is a couple of tiers below Jefferson at a minimum. With St. Brown, he is at least a tier below as well, which is important to distinguish. Brown is in the same tier as Jefferson: the elite WR tier.

Brown signed a four-year, $100 million contract in April of 2022 when the Tennessee Titans traded him to the Eagles on draft night. The extension is $32 million in new money which is something that Jefferson will likely top.

It’s also likely a three-year deal due to how much the salary cap is going up and the evolution of wide receiver contracts. Most receivers are signing second contracts for three years so they can cash in again before the age of 30, something Jefferson likely wants to accomplish.

The other element for Jefferson is by looking at the other top non-quarterback contracts, specifically that of San Francisco 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa. His contract is the biggest non-quarterback contract in NFL history

Five-year contract
$170 million
$34 million average annual value
$122.5 million guaranteed (72.05% of total value)
These figures are likely what Jefferson will want to beat since he is, according to his peers, the best non-quarterback in the NFL. Where does that leave the Vikings?

Well, likely signing him to a three-year, $105 million contract with $80 million fully guaranteed. Last year, my prediction was a three-year, $96 million contract, which has now gone up $3 million per year. That’s the cost of doing business in the NFL and the benefit Jefferson receives for taking the risk and waiting a year.